„Trump will not care about security guarantees for Ukraine“

Liana Fix, Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, elaborates on the support of the United States for Ukraine after November 5th.

By Liana Fix

The U.S. support for Ukraine will be at a crucial turning point after the elections. Ukraine will need a new supplemental that will have to pass Congress at the beginning of next year. Even if Kamala Harris wins, she could be faced with a Republican Senate, which will make it much more difficult to bring the Supplemental through – and the six-month delay on the previous supplemental had real negative battlefield consequences.

But apart from the Supplemental, the greater threat that Ukraine faces is that Trump tries to turn into reality his promise of ceasefire negotiations before he even takes office if he is elected. Trump will not care about security guarantees, nor about snapback mechanisms for sanctions relief. He will just want a ceasefire at all costs – regardless if it is to Ukraine’s peril.

Europeans will need to find a way to influence Trump for the least worst option on Ukraine instead of throwing their hands in the air. Their security depends on that, too.

Liana Fix is a Fellow for Europe within the David Rockefeller Studies Program at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Young Leaders Alumna of Atlantik-Brücke from the class of 2023.